Forecast for XAUUSD for 5 August 2020

August 5, 2020

Forecast for XAU/USD: Gold churns out recordsDmitri Demidenko

Fundamental forecast for gold for today

Precious metal climbed too high

It’s done! What gold bugs had been dreaming about for decades happened: the price has reached a level of $2,000 per ounce. The weakness of the US dollar, the fall of the 10-year U.S. Bond yield to unbelievable minus 1%, and unstoppable growth of ETF reserves did their work. Meanwhile, gold bugs grew much older: according to JP Morgan’s research, the precious metal is usually bought by aged investors, while young traders prefer Bitcoin or high-tech stocks.

Many may find it surprising that gold is growing amidst the rally of US stock indexes. That often happens during recessions, though: enormous volumes of central banks’ cheap liquidity allow investors to build up long positions in risky and reliable assets. What’s more, the market prefers precious metals when it’s unsure about GDP’s recovery.

S&P 500’s and gold’s evolutions

![LiteForex: Forecast for XAUUSD for 5 August 2020][1]

Source: Trading Economics

Even if gold climbed high, there are still a lot of bullish forecasts: Goldman Sachs believes that the prices may go up to $2300 per ounce because investors are looking for a new reserve currency; RBC Capital Markets projects a level of $3,000.

[XAU/USD][2] bulls may have succeeded because the recession didn’t follow the 2007-2009 scenario. Then, the Fed’s monetary stimuli were enough for getting the economy back to the trend; now, it’s unclear. Then, the USD was growing as the US GDP’s recovery rate was faster than its global peers’ one; now, it’s falling amidst the economic divergence of growth. Then, the idea that inflation would speed up amidst increased money supply failed; now, it’s still alive. The difference between then and now allows us to say that gold hasn’t stop rallying yet.

The best scenario for gold would be a W-shape recovery of the US economy. It implies extending monetary and fiscal stimuli, further weakening the USD, and a drop in real US bond yields. However, a V-shape recovery of GDP will allow [XAU/USD][2] quotes to grow too. A long-term downtrend of the USD index is doubtless. At the same time, the Fed makes it clear that it’s ready to tolerate high inflation, which will raise the bond market rates.

Gold and expected inflation dynamics

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![LiteForex: Forecast for XAUUSD for 5 August 2020][3]

Source: Wall Street Journal

The second coronavirus wave in Europe is the main factor in the development of the bullish scenario for gold. Under this scenario, the euro will fall, the USD index will grow and will probably continue growing as the divergence of economic growth will benefit the USA. That scenario is unlikely to happen. So, hold [your long positions formed at $1820-1825 per ounce][4] and build them up during retracements. [XAU/USD][2] may correct on the Congress’s approval of a new fiscal relief package and strong stats on the US labor market.

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Price chart of XAUUSD in real time mode

![Forecast for XAU/USD: Gold churns out records][7]

The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteForex. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.

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