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Economic calendar for the week 23.11.2020 - 29.11.2020

2020-11-22

2020-11-22

Economic calendar for the week 23.11.2020 – 29.11.2020Jana Kane

**Review of the main events of the Forex economic calendar for the

next trading week (23.11.2020 – 29.11.2020)**

Trading on key Forex news: next week we are expecting the publication of important macro statistics from Germany, Eurozone, the UK, Australia, and the US.

American stock indices remained at their opening levels last week. However, the US dollar nevertheless fell by the results of the past week. The optimism of market participants is supported by hopes for an early appearance of an effective vaccine against coronavirus and the commitment of the world’s largest central banks to extra-soft monetary policies.

Despite the alarming rate of increase in the number of coronavirus cases in the world, investors still hope for a rapid V-shaped recovery of the global economy and continued growth in stock markets.

At the same time, the uncertainty reigning in the financial markets does not allow stock indices and commodity quotes to develop a more rapid ascent.

Traders should pay attention to the publication of the following macro indicators:

*during the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar and / or some scheduled events may be canceled

****** GMT time

Monday, November 23

08:30 EUR Germany Markit Economics Manufacturing PMI (preliminary release). Markit Economics Composite PMI (preliminary release)

Germany’s Manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of the business environment and the overall health of the German economy. This sector of the economy forms a significant part of Germany’s GDP. A result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the EUR, below 50 - as negative for the euro. Forecast for November (preliminary release): 56.5.

Previous values: 58.2 in October, 56.4 in September, 52.2 in August, 51.0 in July, 45.2 in June, 36.6 in May, 34.5 in April, 45.4 in March , 48 in February, 45.3 in January, which indicates a continuing recovery in business activity in this sector of the German economy, although the average value for several months is still below 50. Despite the relative decline, the value of the indicator above 50 is still likely to support the euro (in the short term). The data worse than expected and especially the value below 50 will have a negative impact on the euro.

Composite PMI for the German economy is an important indicator of the business environment and the overall health of the German economy. A result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the EUR, below 50 - as negative for the euro. Forecast for November (preliminary release): 50.1 vs 55.0 in October, 54.7 in September, 54.4 in August, 55.3 in July, 47.0 in June, 32.3 in May, 17. 4 in April, 35 in March, 50.7 in February, 51.2 in January. The publication of this indicator with the specified expected value is likely to support the euro in the short term. The data worse than the forecast and below the value of 50.0, as a rule, have a negative impact on the euro.

09:00 EUR Markit Economics Composite Manufacturing PMI (preliminary release)

Eurozone’s Manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of the health of the entire European economy. A result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the EUR, below 50 - as negative for the euro. Forecast for November (preliminary release): 46.1 (against 50.0 in October, 50.4 in September, 51.9 in August, 54.9 in July, 48.5 in June, 31.9 in May, 13 , 6 in April, 29.7 in March, 51.6 in February, 51.3 in January), which may have a short-term negative impact on the euro. If the data turns out to be worse than forecast, the euro may fall sharply in the short term.

09:30 GBP UK Markit Economics Services PMI (preliminary release)

UK’s Services PMI is an important indicator of the health of the UK economy. The service sector employs most of the UK’s working-age population and accounts for approximately 78% of GDP. Financial services are still the most important part of the services industry. If the data turns out to be worse than the forecast and the previous value, the pound is likely to drop sharply in the short term. The data better than the forecast and the previous value will have a positive impact on the pound. At the same time, the result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the GBP, below 50 - as negative for the GBP.

Previous values ​​of the indicator: 51.4 in October, 56.1 in September, 58.8 in August, 56.5 in July, 47.1 in June, 29.0 in May, 13.4 in April, 34.5 in March, 53.2 in February, 53.9 in January. Preliminary forecast for November: 42.5, which is likely to have a negative impact on the pound.

Tuesday, November 24

00:30 AUD Balance of trade

This indicator measures the ratio of Australia’s export and import volumes. Growth in Australian exports leads to an increase in trade surplus, which has a positive impact on the AUD. Previous value (September) was AU$ 5.630 billion. A decrease in the trade surplus may negatively affect the Australian dollar. Vice versa, a growing trade surplus is a positive factor for the AUD.

12:05 JPY Speech by the Head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda

During his speech, the head of the Bank of Japan Kuroda is likely to give comments on the bank’s monetary policy. Following the meeting, the Board of the Bank of Japan, by a majority vote, decided to leave the key rate at -0.1%, and the target level of yield on 10-year government bonds - at zero. The bank did not change its earlier guidelines for further monetary policy and reiterated that it will keep interest rates extremely low “for an extended period.” “It is necessary to patiently continue to ease monetary policy,” said the Governor of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda. Markets tend to react actively to Kuroda’s speeches when he touches on monetary policy. Volatility at such moments usually grows not only in the yen trade, but throughout the Asian and global financial markets. If he doesn’t touch on monetary policy issues, the reaction to his speech will be weak.

22:00 NZD Speech by the head of the RBNZ Adrian Orr

Speeches by the head of the RBNZ often serve as an unofficial source of information on the future direction of the central bank’s monetary policy.

Earlier, the RBNZ stated that against the background of “many factors of uncertainty” monetary policy “will remain soft for the foreseeable future,” but “may be adjusted accordingly.” For a stable recovery of the New Zealand economy and rising inflation, “a weaker NZ dollar is needed.”

It is likely that the head of the RBNZ Adrian Orr will reaffirm the bank’s propensity to pursue a soft monetary policy, which will lead to continued pressure on the New Zealand currency.

In any case, volatility is expected to increase in the New Zealand dollar trade during the RBNZ press conference.

Wednesday, November 25

13:30 USD Durable goods orders. Capital goods orders (ex defense and aviation)

This indicator reflects the value of orders received by manufacturers of durable goods and capital goods (capital goods are durable commodities used to produce durable goods and services) involving large investments. Commodities produced in the defense and aviation sectors of the US economy are not included in this indicator. A strong result strengthens the USD. Previous values ​​of the indicator “orders for durable goods”: +1.9% in September, +0.5% in August, +11.7% in July, +7.7% in June, +15.0% in May , -18.3% in April, -16.7% in March, +2.0% in February, -0.2% in January.

Previous values ​​of the indicator “orders for capital goods ex defense and aviation”: +1.0% in September, +1.9% in August, +2.5% in July, +4.3% in June, +1.5% in May, -6.6% in April, -1.3% in March, -0.6% in February, +0.9% in January.

In theory, the relative growth of the indicator has a positive effect on the dollar; the market reaction to its negative value may be negative for the dollar in the short term. Data worse than the previous value will also have a negative impact on dollar quotes.

Forecast for October: +1.0 %% (orders for durable goods), +0.5% (orders for capital goods ex defense and aviation).

It looks like the indicators are declining again after their recovery in previous months from the strong fall in March and April, which may negatively affect the dollar quotes. The slightly better-than-expected data is also unlikely to have a long-term positive impact on the dollar.

13:30 USD US Annual GDP for 3rd quarter (second estimate)

GDP data is one of the key indicators (along with labor market and inflation data) for the Fed in terms of its monetary policy. Strong result strengthens US dollar; weak GDP report negatively affects the US dollar. In the previous 2nd quarter, GDP declined by -31.4% after growing by 2.1% in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2019.

If the data points to another strong decline in GDP in the 3rd quarter, then the dollar will be under pressure. Positive data on GDP will support the dollar and US stock indices. The preliminary estimate of GDP growth in the 3rd quarter was +33.1%.

19:00 USD Minutes of the November meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee

The publication of the minutes is extremely important for determining the course of the current Fed policy and the prospects for raising interest rates in the United States. The volatility of trading in financial markets during the publication of the minutes usually increases, since the text often contains either changes or clarifying details regarding the results of the last FOMC Fed meeting.

Recently, more and more often one can hear statements from the Fed leaders indicating the Fed’s inclination to continue the extra-soft stimulating policy.

“Economic activity continued to rebound, however, the pace of improvement has slowed,” Chairman of the Fed Jerome Powell said at a press conference following a regular Fed meeting in early November, again calling on the government to strengthen fiscal stimulus measures.

The soft tone of the minutes will have a positive effect on stock indices and negatively on the US dollar. Tough rhetoric of the Fed leaders regarding the prospects for monetary policy will push the dollar to further growth.

It is possible that the minutes will contain some information on the plans of the Fed leaders at the meeting on December 15-16.

Thursday, November 26

No important macro statistics releases planned for this day. The USA celebrates Thanksgiving Day. From this day begins the festive season, which includes Catholic Christmas and New Year. Banks and exchanges in this country will be closed, which will lead to lower trading volumes, especially during the American trading session.

Friday, November 27

No important macro statistics releases planned for this day.

Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode

The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteForex. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.

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