Economic calendar for the week 24.08.2020 - 30.08.2020

August 23, 2020

Economic calendar for the week 24.08.2020 – 30.08.2020Jana Kane

**Review of the main events of the Forex economic calendar for the

next trading week (24.08.2020 – 30.08.2020)**

Trading on key Forex news: next week we expect the publication of important macro statistics from New Zealand, the US, Switzerland, Germany, Canada, as well as the results of the economic symposium in Jackson Hole.

The minutes of the July Fed meeting published last Wednesday did not provide market participants with any additional information on the prospects for the US central bank’s monetary policy. The Fed leaders did not indicate their intentions and concrete actions following the July meeting, reiterating their determination to maintain measures aimed at supporting the economy in an environment when interest rates can no longer be cut, as they are already close to zero, and the asset portfolio has grown sharply to 7 trillion dollars.

Despite this, the dollar was able to end last week in positive territory, breaking a series of falls over the previous 8 weeks. The DXY dollar index rose by just over 20 points last week.

The next week will not be full of important macro statistics. Nevertheless, investors will pay attention to the publication of some important macro data from New Zealand, the US, Switzerland, Germany, and Canada. Financial market participants will focus on the Fed’s Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, which will bring together representatives of the world’s leading central banks and economists. Statements by representatives of central banks may have a significant impact on national currencies.

Из наиболее значимых макроэкономических данных, публикация которых ожидается на следующей неделе, стоит отметить следующие:

*during the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar and / or some scheduled events may be canceled

****** GMT time

Sunday, August 23

22:45 NZD Retail Sales (Q2)

The retail sales report is published by Statistics New Zealand. Changes in retail sales are generally considered an indicator of consumer spending. In general, a high value is a positive factor for the NZD, while a low reading is a negative factor. In the 3rd quarter of 2019, the volume of retail sales increased by +1.7%, in the 4th - the growth was 0%, and in the 1st quarter of 2020 - it decreased by -0.7%, also due to the restrictions imposed in connection with the coronavirus, although in New Zealand the number of cases was minimal compared to other countries with large economies. The NZD will strengthen if the data is better than the previous value and above zero. A weak report will negatively affect the NZD.

Monday, August 24

No important macro statistics planned to be released.

Tuesday, August 25

No important macro statistics planned to be released.

Wednesday, August 26

**12:30 USD Durable goods orders. Capital goods orders (ex defense

and aviation)**

This indicator reflects the value of orders received by manufacturers of durable goods and capital goods (capital goods are durable commodities used to produce durable goods and services) involving large investments. Commodities produced in the defense and aviation sectors of the US economy are not included in this indicator. A strong result strengthens the USD. Previous values of the indicator “orders for durable goods”: +7.6% in June, +15.1% in May, -18.3% in April, -16.7% (in March), +2.0% (in February), -0.2% (in January).

Previous values of the indicator “orders for capital goods ex defense and aviation”: +3.3% in June, +1.6% in May, -6.6% in April, -1.3% (in March), -0.6% (in February), +0.9% (in January).

In theory, the relative growth of the indicator has a positive effect on the dollar; the market reaction to its negative value may be negative for the dollar in the short term. Data worse than the previous value will also negatively affect the dollar quotes. Forecast for July: +3.3% (orders for durable goods), +2.3% (orders for capital goods excluding defense and aviation).

Despite the growth in indicators, it’s probably still not enough to cover their strong decline in March and April. Nevertheless, better- than-expected data will have a short-term positive impact on the dollar.

Thursday, August 27

Annual Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, which is organized and sponsored by the Fed. At the symposium, representatives of the world’s central banks and academic economists discuss issues of the world economy and comment on the prospects for monetary policy of central banks. Statements by representatives of central banks may have a significant impact on national currencies, including the US dollar. The degree of this influence will depend on the tone of the statements of the representatives of the central banks.

05:45 CHF Swistzerland GDP Q2 2020

GDP is considered to be an indicator of the general state of a country’s economy and estimates the rate of its growth or decline. The Gross Domestic Product Statement expresses in monetary terms the aggregate value of all final goods and services produced by Switzerland over a given period of time. An upward trend in the GDP indicator is considered a positive factor for the national currency (franc), while a low result is considered negative (or bearish).

In the previous 1st quarter of 2020, GDP declined by -2.6% (-1.3% yoy) after growing +0.3% (+ 0.3% yoy) in the 4th quarter of 2019 of the year. However, even such a strong decline cannot be compared with the fall in GDP in Germany, the Eurozone, and the United States. In the 2nd quarter of 2020, Switzerland’s GDP is projected to contract by -8.7%. The data points to a strong slowdown in the Swiss economy, which is a negative factor for the franc.

If the data turns out to be even weaker, the franc may significantly decline in the short term. However, one should not expect a strong fall in the franc, as it is in active demand as a defensive asset. Better- than-forecast data may strengthen the franc in the short term.

12:30 USD The US annual GDP for Q2 (second estimate)

GDP data is one of the key indicators (along with data on the labor market and inflation) for the Fed in terms of its monetary policy. Strong result strengthens the US dollar; weak GDP report negatively affects the US dollar. In the previous 1st quarter, GDP declined by -5.0% after growing by 2.1% in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2019. The preliminary forecast for the 2nd quarter of 2020 was -32.9%. The data already takes into account the impact of the coronavirus on the American economy. The second estimate assumes a drop in GDP in the 2nd quarter by -32.5%. Since a strong drop in GDP has already been priced in, the publication of data with a slight deviation from the forecast and the first estimate will not cause strong volatility in dollar quotes. The data is weaker than the forecast and the previous value will have a negative impact on the dollar.

14:00 USD Speech by the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell

Jerome Powell is to speak at the Jackson-Hole Symposium on monetary policy. Market participants are concerned about the likelihood and degree of further easing of the Fed’s monetary policy this and next year.

Powell’s comments may affect short-term USD trading. A more hawkish stance on the Fed’s monetary policy is seen as positive and strengthening the US dollar, while a more cautious one is viewed as negative for the USD.

If he makes unexpected statements about the Fed’s monetary policy, the volatility in trading in the financial markets could increase dramatically.

**15:00 CAD Speech by the Governor of the Bank of Canada Tiff

Macklem**

Tiff Macklem changed Stephen Poloz as Governor of the Bank of Canada on June 3, 2020. Macklem faces essentially the same tasks as his predecessor in this post.

The Canadian economy, as well as the entire global economy, is showing signs of a slowdown in the first half of this year, driven by the downturn in business activity due to the coronavirus pandemic. Earlier this year, Stephen Poloz said that the Canadian economy is robust enough to keep rates unchanged despite the worsening global economy. However, the situation is changing rapidly, and not for the better. It will be interesting now to hear McLeam’s opinion on the sustainability of the Canadian economy and the monetary policy of the central bank.

If Tiff Macklem touches on the topic of the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, the volatility in the quotes of the Canadian dollar will rise sharply. His harsh tone will help strengthen the Canadian dollar. The soft rhetoric of Tiff Macklem’s speech and the intention to pursue soft monetary policy will negatively affect the CAD quotes.

Probably, he can also provide some guidelines for investors on the eve of the next meeting of the Bank of Canada, which will be held in the first half of next month (September 9).

Friday, August 28

Jackson Hole Annual Economic Symposium

**12:00 EUR Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP) in Germany

(preliminary release)**

This index is published by the EU Statistics Office and is calculated on the basis of a statistical method agreed upon between all EU countries. It is an indicator for assessing inflation and is used by the Governing Council of the ECB to assess the level of price stability. A positive result strengthens the EUR, a negative one weakens it.

In May, the HICP index (in annual terms) increased by +0.5%, in June by +0.8%, and in July - the growth of the indicator turned out to be zero. Preliminary forecast for August: 0%. The euro is unlikely to react very positively to the publication of this indicator. If the data turn out to be better than the forecast, then the euro may strengthen in the short term. The growth of the indicator is a positive factor for the euro. The data indicate that inflationary pressures are still low in Germany. The data worse than the forecast and the previous value will negatively affect the euro.

12:30 CAD Annual data on GDP in Canada for the 2nd quarter

Canada’s GDP report is published by Statistics Canada. Canada’s Quarterly GDP report reflects the total volume of all goods and services produced by Canada for the quarter (in annual terms) and is considered an indicator of the general health of the Canadian economy.

Strong report will strengthen the CAD. Weak GDP report will negatively affect the CAD.

The report for the 1st quarter was not only weaker than the previous reports (-8.2% against +0.6% in the 4th quarter and +1.1% in the 3rd quarter of 2019), but came out with a negative value. indicating that the Canadian economy has also been negatively impacted by the coronavirus.

If the data for the 2nd quarter of 2020 turns out to be better than the previous value (-8.2%), the CAD may strengthen. Data worse than the previous reading is likely to have a strong negative impact on the CAD.

**13:05 GBP Speech by the Bank of England’s Governor Andrew

Bailey**

Andrew Bailey, who became the head of the Bank of England on March 16, 2020, replacing Mark Carney, is expected to clarify the situation regarding the future policy of the UK central bank. Volatility during his speech usually rises sharply in pound trading and in the London Stock Exchange FTSE if Andrew Bailey gives any hints of tightening or easing of the Bank of England’s monetary policy. He will probably also touch on the state and prospects of the British economy, which has been badly affected by the coronavirus pandemic and is on the verge of Brexit, which can still happen without a deal.

If he does not touch upon the issues of monetary policy, the reaction to his speech will be weak.

Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode

![Economic calendar for the week 24.08.2020 – 30.08.2020][1]

The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteForex. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.

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