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UK is going to leave the EU without a trade deal

2020-12-11

2020-12-11

Pound didn’t like the dinner. Forecast as of 11.12.2020Dmitri Demidenko

UK is going to leave the EU without a trade deal

The dinner meeting of the British Prime Minister with the European

Commission President drives the no-deal Brexit closer

You can endlessly look at three things: how a candle is burning, how water is flowing, and how the UK is leaving the EU. The end is close. The climax should have been at the dinner meeting of  British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Something went wrong from the outset. Johnson was asked to put on the mask. The dinner menu was rich with symbolism. Fish was on the menu — scallops and turbot — and fishing rights at the top of the talks, as a threat of import tariffs in case of a no-deal Brexit. The dinner a sort of pitted the devil-may-care Johnson against a frugal and precise EC president. An advocate of sovereignty and supporters of order …

- People say, you got the job in a fire department, didn’t you?

- Yes, but I have already been fired.

-Why?

- I like to watch the fire burning.

The current UK Prime Minister failed to be a fireman. He replaced Theresa May, and at first, seemed to be able to save the UK from the fire of a no-deal Brexit. The public approved loud statements in the I’d -rather-die-in-a-ditch manner only in the beginning. But the clock was ticking; the time was going, and, when there were several days left before the make-or-break moment for a Brexit deal, there had been no result.

Johnson wants  UK to end up having a relationship with the EU after Brexit that is much more like the one Australia has with the bloc than Canada does. The tariffs should be on the WTO conditions. The European Union demands too much. The EU officials say the UK must keep up with changing EU rules, and the prime minister is quick to draw parallels. “If the EU decides to have a haircut, then the UK is going to have a haircut or else face punishment. Or if the EU decides to buy an expensive handbag, then the UK has to buy an expensive handbag too or else face tariffs,”  he said.

Britain wants to protect its sovereignty; the European Union aims at maintaining a single market, ensuring equal rules for all countries not only today but also tomorrow and the day after tomorrow. After long years of close partnership, the UK and the EU are going to divorce and find other partners. I am married to the fourth wife…Had I known all women are alike, I would still be married to the first one!

Don’t be afraid of letting people go. People destined for you by fate won’t go. Thank those who leave for getting life experience. The EU-UK relations come undone, talks hit a dead end. However, any dead-end could still become a tunnel. In diplomatic terms, entering the tunnel means the final stage of the negotiations. They still can make a Brexit deal, although one of t he British ministers, following the Supper Summit, exclaimed something like “No deal!”

- Ursula! What is on the menu today?

- Pea soup cooked last week.

- And what is the second course?

- Some medicine for your stomach ….

Following a few months of robust growth, the GBP chart again looks like a roller-coaster in December. Over the past four years after the Brexit referendum in 2016, investors should have got used to the pound’s volatility. Not all traders did. After all, the result will soon be known.

Price chart of GBPUSD in real time mode

The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteForex. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.

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