Economic calendar for the week 08.02.2021 - 14.02.2021

2021-02-07

Economic calendar for the week 08.02.2021 – 14.02.2021Jana Kane

**Review of the main events of the Forex economic calendar for the

next trading week (08.02.2021 – 14.02.2021)**

Trading on key Forex news: next week we expect the publication of important macro statistics from China, US, Germany, and UK.

Despite a significant decline on Friday, the dollar ended last week in positive territory, while the DXY dollar index added another 0.5% closing near 91.00. This was the second consecutive week of the dollar’s offensive movement that started in January after renewing the local almost 3-year low near 89.16.

The dollar reacted negatively to the data released last Friday by the US Department of Labor, which indicated a still weak and slow recovery in the US labor market. The Labor Department reported 49,000 growth in non- farm jobs last month, just slightly below economists’ forecast.

The data for November and December were revised downward by a total of 159,000.

Despite this, the American stock indexes finished last week on a positive note, trading near the absolute highs. Investors are still optimistic, and stocks are aimed at further growth, given the position of the world’s largest central banks, including the Fed and the US government, aimed at further supporting the economy in the context of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.

The next week will not have many releases of important macro statistics. Nevertheless, financial market participants will pay attention to the publication of macro statistics from China, US, Germany, and Great Britain.

**Traders should pay attention to the publication of the following

macro indicators:**

*during the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar and / or some scheduled events may be canceled

**GMT time

Monday, February 8

No important macro statistics planned to be released.

Tuesday, February 9

No important macro statistics planned to be released.

Wednesday, February 10

01:30 CNY Consumer Price Index (CPI)

The National Bureau of Statistics of China will release another monthly data reflecting the dynamics of consumer prices in China. Rising consumer prices could trigger an acceleration in inflation, which could force the People’s Bank of China to take measures aimed at tightening fiscal policy. Increased growth in consumer inflation may cause appreciation of the yuan, a weak result will put pressure on the yuan.

China’s economy, according to various estimates, is already the greatest in the world, pushing the US economy into second place. Therefore, the publication of important macroeconomic indicators of this country has a noticeable impact on world financial markets, primarily on the positions of the yuan, other Asian currencies, the dollar, commodity currencies, as well as on Chinese and Asian stock indices. China is the largest buyer of raw materials and a supplier of a wide range of finished products to the world commodity market.

In January 2020, the growth of the consumer inflation index amounted to +1.4% (+5.4% in annual terms), and in May - the value of the CPI index decreased to -0.8% (+2.4% in annual terms).

Deterioration of macroeconomic indicators, including a decrease in consumer inflation, may negatively affect the positions of the yuan, as well as commodity currencies such as the Canadian, Australian, and New Zealand dollars. To a greater extent, this applies to the Australian dollar, since China is Australia’s largest trade and economic partner.

According to the forecast, the consumer price index is expected to grow by 1.1% in January, but decrease by -0.1% in annual terms against +0.7% (+0.2%), -0.6% (-0.5 %), -0.3% (-2.1%) and +0.2% (+1.7% in annual terms) in previous months.

The rise in the consumer inflation index will have a positive effect on the quotes of the yuan, as well as commodity currencies, primarily the Australian dollar. However, the relative decline in CPI may negatively affect them.

07:00 EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in Germany

This index is published by the EU Statistics Office and is calculated on the basis of a statistical method agreed between all EU countries. It is an indicator for assessing inflation used by the Governing Council of the ECB to assess the level of price stability. A positive result strengthens the EUR, a negative one weakens it.

In May, the HICP index (in annual terms) increased by +0.5%, in June by +0.8%, in July - by 0%, in November and December it decreased by -0.7%. Forecast for January: +1.6%, in line with the preliminary forecast. The euro is likely to react positively to the publication of this indicator. The growth of the indicator is a positive factor for the euro, although the data indicate still low inflationary pressures in Germany. The data is worse than the forecast and / or the previous value will negatively affect the euro.

13:30 USD Consumer Price Index (ex food and energy)

Consumer Price Index (CPI) determines the change in prices of a selected basket of goods and services for a given period and is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changes in consumer preferences. Food and energy have been excluded from this indicator to provide a more accurate estimate. A high value strengthens the US dollar, while a low value weakens it. In December 2020, the value of the indicator was +0.1% (+1.6% in annual terms. Forecast for January: +0.2% and +1.6% (in annual terms), which indicates some improvement in the situation after falling index in March and April 2020 amid the coronavirus pandemic. If the data for January turns out to be weaker than forecast, the dollar is likely to respond with a short-term decline. Data better than forecast will strengthen the dollar.

17:00 GBP Speech by the Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey

In his speech, Andrew Bailey is likely to provide further clarification on the bank’s monetary policy decision last week.

As you know, last Thursday the Bank of England decided to leave interest rates and the size of the asset acquisition program unchanged at 0.10% and 895 billion pounds, respectively, and presented optimistic economic prospects. Bank executives were also skeptical about the introduction of negative interest rates, prompting a sharp appreciation of the pound. Bailey will also likely touch on the state and prospects of the British economy after Brexit, which has been hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic.

Participants of financial markets will also expect him to clarify the situation regarding the further policy of the central bank of Great Britain. If Andrew Bailey gives any hints of tightening or easing of the Bank of England’s monetary policy in the near future, volatility during his speech will sharply increase in the quotes of the pound and the London Stock Exchange FTSE Index. If he does not touch upon the issues of monetary policy, the reaction to his speech will be weak.

Thursday, February 11

No important macro statistics planned to be released. In China, exchanges and banks will be closed for the Chinese New Year, which will reduce trading volumes in the Asian session.

Friday, February 12

07:00 GBP UK GDP for Q4 (preliminary estimate)

GDP is considered to be an indicator of the overall health of the British economy. The growing trend in GDP is considered positive for the GBP. The UK’s GDP was one of the highest in the world until 2016, when the Brexit referendum was held. Then its growth slowed down, and with the onset of the global coronavirus pandemic, the growth rate of British GDP went into negative territory altogether.

UK’s GDP is forecast to grow by 15.8% in Q4 2020 (after falling -19.8% in Q2 and growing +16% in Q3 2020). The main factors that can force the Bank of England to keep rates low are weak GDP and labor market growth, as well as low consumer spending. If the GDP data turn out to be worse than the forecast, it will put downward pressure on the pound. Strong GDP report will strengthen the pound.

**15:00 USD University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

(preliminary release)**

This indicator reflects the confidence of American consumers in the country’s economic development. A high level indicates economic growth, while a low level indicates stagnation. Previous values of the indicator: 76.9 in November, 80.7 in December, 79.0 in January 2021. An increase in the indicator will strengthen the USD, while a decrease in the value will weaken the dollar. This indicator is expected to be released in February with a value of 75.7. There is still a weak trend towards a gradual recovery in the growth of the indicator. Data worse than the forecase may negatively affect the dollar in the short term.

Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode

The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteForex. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.

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