Forecast for US dollar price as of 26 October 2020

2020-10-26

Dollar is afraid of risk on steroids. Analysis as of 26.10.2020Dmitri Demidenko

Forex follows the US stock indexes, but it can’t last long. This week is going to be wild, and it will be hard to fish in troubled waters. Let’s talk about possible scenarios and make a trading plan for [EURUSD][1].

Weekly fundamental forecast for dollar

The pandemic revealed the drawbacks of the eurozone’s two-speed economy. While Germany’s business activity grew, mainly due to the industrial sector, the currency bloc’s composite Purchasing Managers Index dropped to 4-month lows at 49.4. When that value is less than the key level of 50, the economy falls. Thus, the eurozone may face a double recession against the backdrop of the second wave of COVID-19. That allows selling [EURUSD][1] amid the US business activity’s continuous growth. Unfortunately, the market is overwhelmed with quite different investment ideas. At least for now.

Business activity

Source: Wall Street Journal.

Bank of New York Mellon notes that the correlation between currencies and the US stock indexes is significantly higher than in 2019. That allows us to presume their increased sensitivity to risk appetite. The bank interpreted that unusual occurrence as “risk on steroids”: the markets are waiting for Joe Biden’s victory, the [S&P 500][2]’s rally, and the greenback’s dive, which will affect dollar pairs and cross rates.

The USD is under serious pressure, but the euro itself has some trumps. There is too much spare cash in the eurozone’s bank system amid large monetary stimuli. The index reached a record high level of €3.2 trillion in October. As there’s too much spare money, it goes to the debt market: demand for the European Commission’s first bonds was €233 billion while the issuance volume was €17 billion. Since the ECB has already got a large piece of the pie by means of its pandemic-driven bond-buying program, the remaining part is fiercely contended for.

Spare liquidity in European bank system

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Source: Bloomberg.

Central banks are interested in buying bonds too: according to Deutsche Bank’s research, their share in the volume of 10-year bond issuance was 40%, two times bigger than previous issuance values. Diversification of gold and currency reserves in favor of the euro is one of the key factors in the [EURUSD][1]’s consolidation.

The ECB will hardly decide to expand QE in the current circumstances at the meeting on 29 October. It doesn’t need to hurry in spite of the pandemic’s second wave, deflation, Brexit, and double recession risks. The CPI’s fall below zero may be due to temporary factors, such as Germany’s VAT cut. The program’s unused resources amount to $750 billion, whereas economic forecasts will be updated only in December. There are plenty of arguments to continue to “idle on the roadside,” but Christine Lagarde can still surprise us.

Weekly trading plan for [ EURUSD][1]

If not for the ECB’s meeting and the fiscal stimulus story, we could buy [EURUSD][1] at the breakout of resistance at 1.1865 amid expectations of Joe Biden’s victory, then fix profits after 3 November and sell the pair amid the divergence in the US’ and the eurozone’s economic growth. However, other factors may interfere with that plan. The last week of October promises to be wild.

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Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode

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