Logo

Posts

EURUSD forecast for 10.08.2020

August 10, 2020

August 10, 2020

EUR/USD forecast: Euro buyers have doubtsDmitri Demidenko

Fundamental Euro forecast for today

Isn’t the EUR/USD trading too high?

The further, the more interesting. The higher was the euro rising, the more doubts arose about the opinion of the majority. The consensus forecast suggests the global economy should continue recovering, the euro-area GDP should be growing faster than the US economy, the Fed should keep its ultra-easy monetary policy for a long time, and the European recovery fund should set a precedent for diversification in favor of the euro and the securities issued by the EU. What if it is not so? The US jobs report for July has somehow discouraged the [EUR/USD][1] bulls making them exit longs.

The US nonfarm payrolls grew slower than in June, but still exceeded the forecasts of Reuters experts. The indicator continues improving for the third consecutive month, although it is about 13 million less than the levels before the recession. Taking into account the surge in the coronavirus cases in the USA in the middle of summer, 1.8 million new jobs are good performance. The US economic surprise index is still close to all-time highs, which encourages the [EUR/USD][1] bears.

Dynamics of the U.S. economic surprise index and Treasury yield

![LiteForex: EURUSD forecast for 10.08.2020][2]

Source: Citigroup

The idea that the further escalation of the US-China conflict, or even a new round of the trade war, will encourage China to sell the U.S. Treasuries and increase n the share of the euro in the PBOC FX reserves is still just an assumption. The euro-area stock indexes were down amid the fact that China retaliated to Donald Trump’s sanctions against the Chinese officials. The European stock indices now look weaker than the U.S. peers, and the hope for faster growth of the DAX 30 and the EuroStoxx 600 than the S&P 500 has been one of the major growth drivers of the EUR/USD.

Yes, the market is often faster than the real facts. For example, the US stock indexes are about to hit new all-time highs although few believe in the V-shaped recovery of the US GDP. The same is with the [EUR/USD][1]. What if the euro-area faces the second wave of COVID-19? In this case, there will no divergence in economic growth. The euro sellers will go ahead, just like the buyers did in July.

After all, Forex forecasts are always just a probability. Let us hope that the worst will be avoided. I only noted that the market doubts that the majority is right. When the uncertainty comes, currency pairs tend to consolidate. The idea to buy the [EUR/USD][1] on the correction followed by a rebound from supports at 1.172, 1.166, and 1.163 still looks interesting. However, if the US economic data continue improving, the euro uptrend will hardly start soon.

Moreover, Donald Trump decided not to wait until Democrats and Republicans reach an agreement and instructed the U.S. administration to provide $300 a week in additional payments to the unemployed. Any good news bit should support the dollar.

P.S. Did you like my article? Share it in social networks: it will be the best “thank you” :)

Ask me questions and comment below. I’ll be glad to answer your questions and give necessary explanations.

Useful links:

  • I recommend trying to trade with a reliable broker [here][3]. The system allows you to trade by yourself or copy successful traders from all across the globe.
  • Use my promo-code BLOG for getting deposit bonus 50% on LiteForex platform. Just enter this code in the appropriate field while [depositing][4] your trading account.
  • Telegram channel with high-quality analytics, Forex reviews, training articles, and other useful things for traders

Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode

![EUR/USD forecast: Euro buyers have doubts][5]

The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteForex. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.

Rate this article:

{{value}}

( {{count}} {{title}} )

  1. my.liteforex.com/trading/chart?symbol=EURUSD&returnUrl=true
  2. cdn.liteforex.com/cache/uploads/blog_post/eurusd/surprise-usa-10-08-20.jpg?w=30&s=9e9183d17c52d277a41d79b0366d0329
  3. my.liteforex.com/?category=analysts-opinions&slug=eurusd-forecast-euro-buyers-have-doubts&openPopup=%2Fregistration%2Fpopup&utm_source=blog&utm_medium=article&utm_campaign=bonus
  4. my.liteforex.com/deposit/?category=analysts-opinions&slug=eurusd-forecast-euro-buyers-have-doubts&promo_code=BLOG&utm_source=blog&utm_medium=article&utm_campaign=bonus
  5. cdn.liteforex.com/cache/uploads/blog_post/blog_posts/eurusd-analysis-10-08-2020.png?q=75&w=1000&s=e9538130900acf92bac6658d75f42ed0