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EUR/USD forecast for September 2020

August 31, 2020

August 31, 2020

Forex in September: Nothing can stop Europe!Dmitri Demidenko

Fundamental US dollar forecast for September

European currencies are usually strong in early autumn

Accidents happen to anyone! After a few successful months, the adepts of the statistical analysis with a fundamental component have become sure that they have an always-winning strategy. However, the market is unpredictable, every year is different, and it is not reasonable to make Forex trades based solely on the seasonal factor. The sell trades on the [AUD/JPY][1] and [NZD/JPY][2] didn’t yield profits in August, as there was not a necessary condition for entering shorts, the US-China trade war wasn’t escalated. As for the [GBP/CHF][3] sell positions, the pounds went up only in the last week of summer. I do not mean that statistics is useless; I only want to stress that the local failures are also the experience. There no wins without losses. Both in trading and in life.

September is the time when European currencies are the winners. In 1975-2019, the best-performing currencies of September were the Swedish krona, the Norwegian krone, and the Swiss franc. These currencies grew against the US dollar in 28 cases out of 45. The euro was also strong; it closed 27 months in the green. The commodity currencies were usually among the Forex outsiders. It suggests that the commodity market can again go down. It is a likely scenario if there is the second pandemic wave.

Rise-and-fall periods

![LiteForex: EUR/USD forecast for September 2020][4]

Source: BoE, LiteForex analysis

Based on averages and medians, the leaders are the Scandinavian currencies, the Swiss franc, and the euro. They didn’t crash even when many G10 currencies were more than 10% down versus the USD in September 2011. However, everything can happen in Forex. Remarkably, in 2009-2010, at the final stage of the previous global economic crisis, the greenback was rather weak in early autumn.

Averages and Medians

![LiteForex: EUR/USD forecast for September 2020][5]

Source: BoE, LiteForex analysis

On average, in good periods, the franc grew by 3.2%, the Norwegian krone was 2.9% up, and the Swedish krona rose by 2.6%. The drops of the AUD and the NZD were rather deep (3.9%)

Dynamics of currency rates during rise-and-fall periods

![LiteForex: EUR/USD forecast for September 2020][6]

Source: BoE, LiteForex analysis

I believe the US jobs report for August can determine the trends for the dollar pairs for the entire September. The weak jobs data will fuel the idea of the growth gap between the euro area and the US. In this case, the [EUR/USD][7] will go up, and the [USD/CHF][8], [USD/NOK][9], and [USD/SEK][10] should go down. Otherwise, an increase in US employment will return the idea of the V-shaped recovery of the US GDP, which will support the greenback. The euro bulls could be discouraged by the ECB if it follows the Fed’s path and targets the average inflation instead of nominal at its meeting on September 10. After all, I do not think the [EUR/USD][7] drawdown will be deep.

As for the commodity currencies, I yet won’t recommend selling the [AUD/USD][11] and the [NZD/USD][12], as China’s economy is outperforming the other world’s economies. Traders are likely to buy these pairs in case the prices drop. If the oil prices go down, the [USD/CAD][13] will also roll down. However, [Brent][14] and [WTI][15] are still steadily rising in price.

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Ask me questions and comment below. I’ll be glad to answer your questions and give necessary explanations.

Useful links:

  • I recommend trying to trade with a reliable broker [here][16]. The system allows you to trade by yourself or copy successful traders from all across the globe.
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Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode

![Forex in September: Nothing can stop Europe!][18]

The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteForex. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.

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